Spring Break Progress Test = SUCCESS! 40k bike progress

A good training plan has some built in testing periods to see if your plan is working. Of course, those tests should be built around your goals for the year.  If you are self-coached, it’s important to work in some of these tests throughout the year so you can make appropriate changes early enough to give you the results you want on race day.
In my case, my goal for the year is a 60 minute 40k bike, so my test is to see if I can ride 24 miles in one hour at a tension that is similar to what I’ll find on race day.
I did a scheduled spring break progress test today to see if my winter workouts on the bike were successful. I didn't really take a break this week, so my legs weren't completely fresh, but they're close enough for the info I wanted.
This week's workouts consisted of 3,000 yards swimming on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. This week had a definite swim-focus  because the pool is closed this weekend and all next week for spring break repairs, and I wanted to pick up my swim efforts. On the bike, I did only a 30 moderate-effort miles on Monday morning. For running, I ran 3.5 miles on a round-about-route to the pool and back on Thursday and Friday. With such little bike and run this week, I still felt fatigued in my legs a bit as I walked up the stairs last night; I guess a three fold increase in swim volume can really affect your entire body!  
Below is my expected progression chart for bike, run, and swim. The March 15 date was not a hard date when I set it back in November or so; it was meant to be a day somewhere around spring break, which today fits.
 

The bike goals are the second and third columns in from the left. I have to put “gear/cad” because I don’t have a power meter and that is my control factor. In any case, I ended up doing the test today on Gear 9 (the highest possible) plus an additional turn harder on the trainer tension, equivalent to an extra gear harder.
My average cadence was 72, much higher than the 68 listed. I only went for 65 minutes (five minute warmup plus 1 x 60 minute set), though, but I had already done 25.44 miles in that 65 minutes. Since the overall goal here is to be able to do 24 miles per hour for an hour, I have met that goal. And, I’m pretty sure my tension is set at the equivalent of road resistance with no wind. I’m very happy with my results, but the “rubber will meet the road” when I actually get out on the road….that might be a while because it snowed again today, and I’m a fair weather rider.

As far as the swim goes, I couldn’t hit that 2,000 yards in 24 minutes today, and that’s probably too fast of a goal anyway. I can hit 1500 yards in 22:00 in the pool at an 95% effort. That’s as far as I’ve gotten in the pool this year. I’m not really worried about it, though, because the swim endurance can come back fairly quickly, and this past week was the first week I really even cared about the swim workouts; almost all swimming prior to this week was done break up the monotony of biking and running all the time.
I hit that run goal two weeks ago. My average for the 10k loop is right around 50:00 on a very moderate effort. I routinely hit faster than 49:30 on that loop if I put forth any amount of effort beyond moderate. That 10k loop is very hilly, with three 200foot elevation change hills on it. I think that if I can hit that route routinely at 46:00 during standard workout weeks with a lot of volume in my legs, I should definitely be able to run a 42:00 10k in a race. That’s still a bit short of the 40:00 goal, but I’m being very conservative and not adjusting for elevation or race adrenaline.
Here’s a chart of what my run progression looks like. The data points are times run on the same course. I tried to run the same “moderate effort level” every time I ran it. You can see how the average time, represented by the red line, trends downward even though I drastically increased bike volume and then the swim volume during that time while gaining about ten pounds(!). If I can lost ten pounds, I’m sure the graph will continue its downward trend.

All in all, I’m very happy with where I’m at right now, assuming that bike tension is equivalent to road resistance. The only thing I’m not happy about is weighing 185 pounds when my goal weight is 170-172. I knew I was going to gain weight when I quit dipping, but I thought I would be able to get it off sooner or later if I had did enough volume. That’s not the case so far.